Polls Give Canada's Conservatives a Shot at Power
Reuters @ Yahoo Reuters
Polls Give Canada's Conservatives a Shot at Power
By Randall Palmer
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Opinion polls ahead of the June 28 election are making Canada's Conservatives believe they have a real shot at forming the country's next government after spending a decade in the political wilderness.
Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals remain ahead in the polls, but by four or five percentage points instead of 20 to 30 points of the past several years. The polls are also showing that a solid majority of Canadians say it is time for change.
"A Liberal minority is possible. A Conservative minority is also possible," pollster Jean-Marc Leger said as a new survey for Sun Media on Wednesday put support for the Liberals at 35 percent and the Conservatives at 30 percent.
That echoed an Ipsos-Reid poll on Monday night that had the spread at 34 percent to 30 percent.
If those numbers stick, neither of the two main parties would win enough seats for a parliamentary majority. But they could form a government with the backing of one or two smaller parties -- the left-leaning New Democratic Party or the Bloc Quebecois, which wants independence for French-speaking Quebec.
The figures have shaken the Martin campaign, with the prime minister conceding for the first time on Tuesday that voters might not accept his message.
Martin pushed out Jean Chretien as Liberal leader in November and took over as prime minister in December, causing sharp divisions inside the party. A tax rise last month by the Liberal government in the province of Ontario, which violated a preelection promise, has also hurt Liberal prospects.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper suggested on Wednesday the latest turn of events was not surprising.
"You had a government with a crumby record. You had an unpopular prime minister who was replaced by an internal coup. That leads to all kinds of problems down the road," he said in an interview on a Toronto sports radio station.
Vote-rich Ontario will be the key battleground in the election, and the Leger poll put the Liberals just ahead of the Conservatives there at 38 percent to 36 percent.
The Liberals got almost a clean sweep of Ontario seats in the last federal election in 2000 but the Conservatives now stand to take perhaps 40 or more of the 106 Ontario seats.
The idea of a minority government has led to questions about whether the smaller parties might end up with too strong a role.
Harper said he would not form a formal alliance with any party. "We're not going to do anything that jeopardizes the future of the country," he said.
"Minorities -- Bloc/NDP balance of power -- it's not a great thing for the country," Harper conceded. "That said, a bad majority government's pretty bad too, and I think four more years of this (Liberal) government is going to be taking us in the wrong direction."
The idea of cooperation with the Bloc, whose ultimate goal is to break up Canada, drew an editorial warning from the Globe and Mail newspaper: "Mr. Harper should remember the adage that he who sups with the devil needs a very long spoon. The question is: How much is his party prepared to swallow?"
Reuters @ Yahoo Reuters
Polls Give Canada's Conservatives a Shot at Power
By Randall Palmer
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Opinion polls ahead of the June 28 election are making Canada's Conservatives believe they have a real shot at forming the country's next government after spending a decade in the political wilderness.
Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals remain ahead in the polls, but by four or five percentage points instead of 20 to 30 points of the past several years. The polls are also showing that a solid majority of Canadians say it is time for change.
"A Liberal minority is possible. A Conservative minority is also possible," pollster Jean-Marc Leger said as a new survey for Sun Media on Wednesday put support for the Liberals at 35 percent and the Conservatives at 30 percent.
That echoed an Ipsos-Reid poll on Monday night that had the spread at 34 percent to 30 percent.
If those numbers stick, neither of the two main parties would win enough seats for a parliamentary majority. But they could form a government with the backing of one or two smaller parties -- the left-leaning New Democratic Party or the Bloc Quebecois, which wants independence for French-speaking Quebec.
The figures have shaken the Martin campaign, with the prime minister conceding for the first time on Tuesday that voters might not accept his message.
Martin pushed out Jean Chretien as Liberal leader in November and took over as prime minister in December, causing sharp divisions inside the party. A tax rise last month by the Liberal government in the province of Ontario, which violated a preelection promise, has also hurt Liberal prospects.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper suggested on Wednesday the latest turn of events was not surprising.
"You had a government with a crumby record. You had an unpopular prime minister who was replaced by an internal coup. That leads to all kinds of problems down the road," he said in an interview on a Toronto sports radio station.
Vote-rich Ontario will be the key battleground in the election, and the Leger poll put the Liberals just ahead of the Conservatives there at 38 percent to 36 percent.
The Liberals got almost a clean sweep of Ontario seats in the last federal election in 2000 but the Conservatives now stand to take perhaps 40 or more of the 106 Ontario seats.
The idea of a minority government has led to questions about whether the smaller parties might end up with too strong a role.
Harper said he would not form a formal alliance with any party. "We're not going to do anything that jeopardizes the future of the country," he said.
"Minorities -- Bloc/NDP balance of power -- it's not a great thing for the country," Harper conceded. "That said, a bad majority government's pretty bad too, and I think four more years of this (Liberal) government is going to be taking us in the wrong direction."
The idea of cooperation with the Bloc, whose ultimate goal is to break up Canada, drew an editorial warning from the Globe and Mail newspaper: "Mr. Harper should remember the adage that he who sups with the devil needs a very long spoon. The question is: How much is his party prepared to swallow?"
